By Nik Ogbulie
The long wait by Nigerians for an affordable fuel price in the country has waned, as the major producers and dealers seem to have woven a classic conspiracy to deceive Nigerians to believe that the price is inevitable.
Nigerians who are still of the belief that there would soon be a downwards review are beginning to understand that the ministry of Petroleum, Dangote Refinery and the NNPCL are on the same page as long as the pump price of fuel is concerned even though some of them have continued to play the ostrich in their effort to make their company look good before the over 200 million consumers. The fact remains that some of them are clandestinely pushing for higher prices which would soon be released.
Our Economic Intelligence Unit has unveiled the determined intentions of the producers who are parrying a huge cost which they claim to have been the average cost of producing fuel which they insisted must be reflected to the price since market economy must be obeyed in line with the deregulation and non- subsidy application in the economy.
There are strong indications that if their intentions get a way, Nigerians must be ready to pay as much as N2000/litre before December.
Our market research indicates that the average cost of fuel across the country stands at N1100 even in Lagos State which has ever enjoyed very minimal response to fuel price hikes over the years. With many official NNPCL channels shut down, buyers are glued to buy from independent marketers at the “forced” price of between N1100 and N1250 per litre.
Unofficial data indicate that 50% of the regular cars are off the roads, infusing serious business distortions and inflating transportation costs. This has graphically pushed commodity costs very high as inflation would be seen to have reached its highest ebb in the last quarter of the year. The development will further shrink investment value and encourage many to tinker alternative channels within Africa.
A former oil sector CEO who spoke to us is of the opinion that the product is like any other and producers are strictly obliged to sell without recurse to what other institutions feel. He noted that all the excuses being paddled by dealers are part of the figments of conspiracy which may only create more rooms for monopoly because very soon some of the dealers will be out of product supply, creating room for one that has larger capacity and savvy to declare scarcity. He concluded that by that time, Nigerians would have only one dealing source and must submit to their dictate.
Our investigations indicate that in the next few months fuel supply will further reduce and Nigerians may rely so much on black market as major channels will dry up.
Major commodity consultants are of the position that the fuel price debate has set a trend for a continuously rising price as none of the three major fuel suppliers to consumers seem to favour increased price as they harnour no serious obligation to Nigerians.. He noted that the trend is very precarious and can result to a market trend Nigerians cannot control.
