n its IMF/World Bank edition eight years ago, MONEYREPORT Magazine had published an opus, “Africa Waits for Dangote Refinery”, in an interpretative journalism code. Today, our economic Intelligence Unit led by Uchenna Kalu feels the game may still change.
Exactly one week before the end of the Buhari administration, Nigerians and others were treated to a national carnival of some sort. It was the commissioning of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos. That event, graced by President Mohammadu Buhari and four other presidents from the West African subregion, reverberated beyond the sleepy backwater of Ibeju Lekki, Lagos, where the launch took place. The celebration brought together the high and mighty both in business and politics, while a million others across the globe were glued to their television and live streamed on social media. Everybody wanted to catch glimpse of an event described by the then President Buhari as “a game changer for the Nigerian people”.
Eight months later, the refinery started the processing of crude oil into various products such as diesel, naphtha and jet fuel. It started adding the production of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly called Petrol, to the joy of many.
The herald of the Dangote Refinery into the Nigerian downstream oil sector was a very significant event in the country. Citizens have longed for such intervention and have waited for years for a day like that to come. For the hapless and longsuffering population, the refinery is expected to make a significant impact in the Nigerian economy. At the core, Nigerians were made to believe that an in-country refinery of that magnitude would lead to low-priced petroleum products, reduced reliance on importation and bring an end to the problem of petrol scarcity. Maybe their economics couldn’t match their emotions or sentiments. They may have been so presumptuous, because they have been carried away by long waiting over arguably very sure promises. The answer they can now get as consolation for the wobbling high price is the very poor economy. Stupid!
The average Nigeria, who lives below the global poverty level of $2/day, does not relate with all the buzzwords used to explain the macro-economic expectations on the refinery. He has been made to understand that siting a refinery of such magnitude will drastically reduce his cost of living by reducing the price of petrol at the pump. Such price reduction, it was simply explained, is the result of eliminating the shipping cost of imported fuel. As a result, his transportation cost as well as the cost of fuel for industrial needs will be greatly reduced. Overall, goods will be cheaper and his meager income would stretch further. That was the promise, at least that was what people like Paul A . Samuelson, Menad Kaine and our own little OA Lawal told us.
His situation, however, seems to be getting worse, signally no benefits attributable to the presence or absence of any refinery. In 2024, the very year the refinery began pumping petrol, headline inflation, the World Bank says, peaked at an average annual rate of 31.7%, driven by factors like naira depreciation and increased fuel prices. In the same year, the increasing prices of essential goods and services put a strain on household budgets, leading to a decrease in overall consumer spending.
In its Economic outlook for 2024, PwC stated: “Poverty levels are projected to increase to 38.8% in 2024. Despite the high unemployment rate in the country, low consumer spending and purchasing power remains an issue, especially in the absence of commensurate increase in minimum wage to mitigate the inflationary growth in the economy.” Without any doubt, it was prophesy fulfilled.
Recall that the price of petrol has been biting hard on Nigerians even before the famous inaugural address declaration of “Subsidy is gone” by President Bola Tinubu. However, Tinubu’s declaration quickly sent the pump price of petrol skyrocketing from about ₦780 a litre to ₦2160 a litre, driving up the overall cost of living in the country. It was the hope of the everyday Nigerian that, at least, a pre-Tinubu petrol price level could be a good start for the new mega refinery.
When Dangote Refinery commenced supply of petrol in mid-September of 2024, the hopes for a potential reduction in petrol prices, were clearly dashed when NNPC Limited, its trading partner, released a new pricing template that raised pump prices by about 11 per cent to N950 per litre. While the bickering went on between NNPC and Dangote Refinery over price of the product, Olufemi Soneye, Chief Corporate Communications Officer, NNPC, issued a statement clarifying that Dangote petrol will not sell cheaper.
Over the months, the two organizations have been involved in so-called “price-war”, a comical wrestle, whereby marginally insignificant reductions and quick additions have been made on pump prices of petrol. Towards the end of January 2025, Dangote Refinery has increased its petrol price to N955 per litre. As was expected, the company’s spokesperson, Anthony Chiejina, issued a statement reiterating the well-worn claim that the price hike was driven by fluctuations in global crude oil prices.
Come second week of April, there was a buzz in the media with regards to how Dangote Refinery made a “price reduction” from ₦880 to ₦865 per litre. Clearly, the promise of Dangote Refinery to the Nigerian who celebrated its coming on-stream has been a perfect mirage. It was really like, the more things change, the more they remain the same.
The commissioning of the Dangote Refinery was celebrated by the Nigerian people with the hope that its coming will bring relief to them. But one year later, events suggests that a patriotic consideration towards the improvement in the livelihood of the hapless Nigerian by a home-based refining plant was the last reason for setting up the refinery. The situation of the average Nigerian fuel users and those of the millions using generators have not improved one bit. Consider the facts: In a report entitled “Nigeria’s Current Economic Situation in 2025”, Proshare stated, “Nigerians are facing a high inflation rate, resulting in an increase in the cost of living. The prices of goods and services have steadily risen, eroding households’ disposable income. In January, the rebased inflation settled at 24%, indicating the persistent challenge of high inflation in the economy.”
Agosto & Co, in its monthly newsletter for January 2025 said, “The key policy reforms, including the removal of petrol subsidies and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, have left the embattled average Nigerian with a growing sense of disillusion. Persistent naira weakness and elevated price levels, particularly for food and fuel, continue to erode real incomes, exacerbating the already severe cost-of-living crisis.”
Agosto further stated that, “Crucially, we expect domestic crude oil refining to provide a significant boost to Nigeria’s GDP growth momentum following the partial re-commencement of operations at the Port Harcourt (60,000 bpd) and Warri (125,000 bpd) oil refineries. These, in addition to the 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery and other oil refinery projects across the country are projected to raise Nigeria’s total oil refining capacity to over 1.2 mbpd in 2025. This development signals a potential end to refined petroleum imports by late 2025, a critical milestone in managing foreign exchange pressures. Furthermore, in the medium term, surplus refined products could position Nigeria as a key regional supplier, enhancing export earnings and improving the trade balance.”
These things never materialized. A situation where exporting refined petroleum products to Saudi Aramco, Cameroon, Ghana, Angola and even the US is celebrated by the company when domestic demands are unmet is quite telling.
Events of the last one year suggest that Nigerians and the owner of the refinery were never on the same page. Apparently, nobody was promised anything. Patriotism has nothing to do with anything as far as Dangote refinery was concerned. This may be linked to the high cement price era, when manufacturers blame the cost of black oil and high forex for it and called for government intervention which was obliged but cement price went far up later and never came down even today. Business experts believe that the scenario with fuel price today is equally toeing the cement price situation of some years past. Although many Nigerians, already hit by a 45% increase in pump prices following the removal of subsidies in May 2023, are hoping for stabilization, analysts, however, believe that these expectations will not be met, as the business owners must amortize a massive $20 billion investment to build the refinery.
In order to recoup this investment, analysts say, the investors may choose to sell a significant proportion of its production on international markets, where margins are higher. As the company makes this choice, any commitment to meeting domestic needs will be unrealistic. Getting the needed crude oil supply remains an issue for Dangote’s refinery.
A running battle with NNPC means that the national energy firm has not always been able to supply the necessary crude on competitive terms. As a result, Dangote is compelled to source crude from international markets, where crude is $3 to $4 per barrel more expensive than domestic prices.
On the political front, it is obvious that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu appears to be less of a friend to Dangote than Buhari, the Naira payment guideline for domestic crude notwithstanding.. This also creates tensed relations between the company and the state. This political situation, the international competition, and the crude supply issues could make it difficult for the refinery to even choose to meet national energy needs.
The jubilant welcome to the commissioning of the 650,000 barrel per day refinery in Ibeju Lekki, Lagos, has almost become euphoric as fuel price has even become a huge cost to all. A sudden realization that the expectations were misplaced and that perhaps, there was a complete misalignment of aspirations on both sides; the owners and operators of the mega plant on one hand and the average Nigerian on the other. The refinery was not designed for the benefit average man. Its priorities have been and remain profit maximization. Period. Maybe market dynamics may sway in favor of the common man in time to come. However, expecting that favor from the refinery at Ibeju Lekki remains a huge and perfect mirage. The owners say they mean well but the economic consequences going forward are simply formidable. Often said, the entire development is like “bringing a new thing to the world and it is a pain to the arse”.